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Word from my LGS
Ammo in the next 12 months
We all know the situation with ammunition is terrible, and it is getting worse by the week.
Some facts:
Last week I was about to order 35,000 rounds of .22. They were then in the “120-Day Delivery” margin of expectation. I waited a day to order, and, the following day I was told that I should now expect 6 months to a year to get them. If I waited any longer it will go into the “Out-of-Stock-Not-Accepting Orders” margin of expectation.
I talked to a personal friend connected to the ammunition industry at the highest level. I shared with him that I thought the shortage was “fishy” and I that I felt that something was not right. This is the information I received:
The ammunition manufacturing industry got hit hard right after the elections. It got quickly to the point where they could just manufacture enough to load store shelves but had no reserves left.
When Sandy Hook and Aurora events hit the news the shelves were emptied, with no reserve to fill them in. Take for example .22 LR ammunition. The industry as a whole (all manufacturers combined) is setup to produce 4,200,000,000 (4.2 Billions) .22 LR annually. That is running all the machines, full capacity all the time, all manufacturers together. There is NOTHING they can do to produce more. That corresponds to 230,137 cartridge per State per day, which is 460 bricks of 500 .22 LR per day per State. That means that if less than 50 people per day in each State are buying 10 bricks of .22, it is enough to dry up the entire supply as it is being manufactured.
Now . . . think of how many Millions of us are seeking ammo right now. I was asked to picture the Ammunition stores as an ocean and rivers that has been completely dried up. And each time a drop hits the ground, it dries up right away.
What to expect from the industry as a whole for the coming year
This is what to expect, as per what I was told, by someone high up and whom has experienced four ammo rushes in his 40 year career in the business.
It will be over a year before things start come down.
First to come back will be reloading components, starting with powder, and then some projectiles. Then the primers will come back, starting with specific types and brand, and then latter the more common and demanded types. Then center fire ammo will start to come back, generally a caliber at a time. The LAST two things to come back will be .22LR and 223 for two reasons: 1) the demand is so great, and 2) military and LE use a LOT of 223. In light of all of this . . .
I have reduced the round-count in the shooting classes I teach.
Some of the classes do not include ammunition anymore.
I do not promise delivery dates anymore on ammunition.
I stock up all that I can find.
I am more patient waiting for orders.
What you should do . . .
If you find ammo and it is expensive . . . just think that it is about to become even more expensive and even almost impossible to get.
Please don't shoot the messenger
Ammo in the next 12 months
We all know the situation with ammunition is terrible, and it is getting worse by the week.
Some facts:
Last week I was about to order 35,000 rounds of .22. They were then in the “120-Day Delivery” margin of expectation. I waited a day to order, and, the following day I was told that I should now expect 6 months to a year to get them. If I waited any longer it will go into the “Out-of-Stock-Not-Accepting Orders” margin of expectation.
I talked to a personal friend connected to the ammunition industry at the highest level. I shared with him that I thought the shortage was “fishy” and I that I felt that something was not right. This is the information I received:
The ammunition manufacturing industry got hit hard right after the elections. It got quickly to the point where they could just manufacture enough to load store shelves but had no reserves left.
When Sandy Hook and Aurora events hit the news the shelves were emptied, with no reserve to fill them in. Take for example .22 LR ammunition. The industry as a whole (all manufacturers combined) is setup to produce 4,200,000,000 (4.2 Billions) .22 LR annually. That is running all the machines, full capacity all the time, all manufacturers together. There is NOTHING they can do to produce more. That corresponds to 230,137 cartridge per State per day, which is 460 bricks of 500 .22 LR per day per State. That means that if less than 50 people per day in each State are buying 10 bricks of .22, it is enough to dry up the entire supply as it is being manufactured.
Now . . . think of how many Millions of us are seeking ammo right now. I was asked to picture the Ammunition stores as an ocean and rivers that has been completely dried up. And each time a drop hits the ground, it dries up right away.
What to expect from the industry as a whole for the coming year
This is what to expect, as per what I was told, by someone high up and whom has experienced four ammo rushes in his 40 year career in the business.
It will be over a year before things start come down.
First to come back will be reloading components, starting with powder, and then some projectiles. Then the primers will come back, starting with specific types and brand, and then latter the more common and demanded types. Then center fire ammo will start to come back, generally a caliber at a time. The LAST two things to come back will be .22LR and 223 for two reasons: 1) the demand is so great, and 2) military and LE use a LOT of 223. In light of all of this . . .
I have reduced the round-count in the shooting classes I teach.
Some of the classes do not include ammunition anymore.
I do not promise delivery dates anymore on ammunition.
I stock up all that I can find.
I am more patient waiting for orders.
What you should do . . .
If you find ammo and it is expensive . . . just think that it is about to become even more expensive and even almost impossible to get.
Please don't shoot the messenger
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